Retail Media 2025: Where U.S. Ad Dollars Are Actually Going
A practical, keyword-optimized snapshot for U.S. individuals and businesses moving budget into retail media networks (RMNs) in 2025—what’s growing, who’s winning, and how to allocate across search, off-site, CTV, and in-store.
Updated: August 2025 • Keywords: retail media 2025 USA, Amazon Ads share, Walmart Connect growth, Instacart ads, Target Roundel revenue, off-site retail media, CTV retail media, in-store retail media screens
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Table of Contents
- 1) Big Picture: How Fast Is Retail Media Growing?
- 2) Winners & Shares: Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, Target
- 3) Where the Dollars Flow: On-site vs Off-site vs CTV vs In-store
- 4) Non-Endemic Advertisers: Who’s Buying (Beyond CPG)?
- 5) Budget Split Templates (USA)
- 6) KPIs & Proof: What CFOs Want to See
- 7) FAQs
- Disclaimer
1) Big Picture: How Fast Is Retail Media Growing?
Retail media remains the fastest-growing major channel in U.S. advertising. Multiple trackers peg 2025 U.S. retail media spend in the low-$60B range and rising—on pace to be over $1 in every $5 of U.S. digital ad dollars by 2029. Growth is decelerating off big comps, but the channel keeps gaining share.
Macro backdrop: Total U.S. ad spend outlook is mixed for 2025, but retail media’s closed-loop measurement continues to attract budgets.
2) Winners & Shares: Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, Target
Amazon Ads
Amazon is the category anchor. Forecasts show Amazon’s U.S. retail media revenue surpassing $60B in 2025 (with estimates varying by source). Share estimates differ, but all agree Amazon dominates the market.
Walmart Connect
Walmart is the #2 growth engine. In fiscal Q1 FY26, global ad revenue jumped 50% YoY; Walmart Connect (U.S.) rose 31%, helped by integrating Vizio CTV inventory with retail data for closed-loop measurement.
Instacart Ads
Instacart continues to expand retail media tools (e.g., Carrot Ads white-label RMNs) despite mixed quarterly headlines; ads remain a strategic pillar.
Target Roundel
Roundel reported $649M in 2024 ad revenue (+25% YoY) and $163M in Q1 2025; Target projects nearly $2B of “value” tied to Roundel across financial levers.
Concentration risk: Analysts expect Amazon + Walmart to capture ~84% of U.S. retail media spend in 2025, keeping pressure on smaller RMNs to differentiate with data, service, and omnichannel reach.
3) Where the Dollars Flow: On-site vs Off-site vs CTV vs In-store
On-site Search & Display
Sponsored Products/search remain the biggest bucket today and keep growing, though slower than newer formats.
Off-site (Open Web & Social)
Off-site retail media using retailer data is the fastest-growing slice in 2025—projected to rise ~42%, nearly 3× on-site growth.
CTV / Streaming
Retail media on CTV is accelerating; estimates suggest ~15% of U.S. CTV ad spend in 2025 comes via retail media partners as streamers and RMNs link ads to purchase.
In-store Screens & Smart Surfaces
In-store retail media is still small but crossing $500M+ in 2025; pilots include smart carts and TV walls, though adoption varies by grocer.
Why Walmart’s CTV matters
Walmart’s Vizio tie-in blends streaming reach with retail SKU data, fueling closed-loop ROAS claims and pulling brand/video dollars into RMNs.
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4) Non-Endemic Advertisers: Who’s Buying (Beyond CPG)?
With CPG budgets maturing, RMNs are courting non-endemic categories—finance, travel, auto, telco, entertainment—using retailer audiences to target likely buyers even if the product isn’t sold by the retailer. :contentReference[oaicite:12]{index=12}
Why this matters: Non-endemic buys often flow into off-site and CTV, accelerating those lines of spend relative to on-site search.
5) Budget Split Templates (USA)
| Advertiser Type | Suggested Split | Why |
|---|---|---|
| CPG / Grocery | On-site search 45% • Off-site 25% • CTV 20% • In-store 10% | Protect the digital shelf; expand to CTV/off-site for upper-funnel reach with closed-loop proof. |
| D2C / Marketplace-heavy | On-site search 50% • Off-site 35% • CTV 10% • In-store 5% | Prioritize Sponsored Products + retargeting; add DSP to capture off-site demand. |
| Non-endemic (Finance/Auto) | Off-site 40% • CTV 40% • On-site 15% • In-store 5% | Leverage retailer audiences where SKU context is weaker; measure with closed-loop outcomes. |
Guardrails: Cap any single RMN at 60–70% of your retail media budget to reduce concentration risk and test 1–2 challengers per quarter.
6) KPIs & Proof: What CFOs Want to See
Retail ROAS & Incrementality
Blend on-platform sales with off-site/CTV lift tests; use matched-market or geo-split where available.
Digital Shelf Health
Share of search, organic rank, and price compliance tied to Sponsored Products investment.
CTV Outcomes
View-through to add-to-cart/purchase using retailer IDs; compare to non-retail CTV benchmarks.
Reality check: Measurement isn’t uniform across RMNs; verify methodology and data windows before making year-over-year claims.
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7) Frequently Asked Questions
Is retail media still growing faster than the ad market?
Yes. Forecasts show retail media outpacing total U.S. ad spend in 2025 and taking >20% of digital by 2029.
Where are incremental dollars going?
To off-site (open web/social with retailer data) and CTV, which are growing far faster than on-site search in 2025.
Who’s getting the biggest share?
Amazon dominates, with forecasts >$60B in 2025, while Walmart Connect is the clear #2 and accelerating via CTV/data integrations.
How big is in-store retail media?
Smaller today (crossing the ~$500M mark in 2025) but rising as grocers test screens and smart carts.
Will smaller RMNs survive?
Yes—if they specialize (category depth, in-store reach, service) and prove incrementality. But market share stays concentrated in the top two.
